Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $61,295$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,873.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(58,873.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,732$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(2.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,478.2}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,478.2\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,622$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $312,640$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(4.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{302,325.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.4)}}\) (asimptote \(302,325.1\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43,634$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(8.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,497.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(41,497.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $267,642$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $248,770$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(7.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{236,782.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(236,782.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,343$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(9.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,423.2}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(27,423.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $70,051$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $240,310$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(6.62 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,231.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(233,231.5\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,738$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(8.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,706.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(33,706.3\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,681$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,137$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,172.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.8)}}\) (asimptote \(89,172.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,280$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(844 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,116.6}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,116.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $59,857$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $199,476$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(5.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{188,574.8}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(188,574.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,781$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(7.94 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,800.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,800.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $93,921$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $50,355$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,626.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(47,626.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,124$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,005.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,005.1\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $44,045$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,439$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(6.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,046.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(25,046.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,735$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(367 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,678.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,678.4\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $340$ on 2020-06-28
