Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $61,295$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,873.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(58,873.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,732$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(2.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,478.2}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,478.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,622$ on 2020-06-28

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $312,640$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(4.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{302,325.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.4)}}\) (asimptote \(302,325.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43,634$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(8.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,497.0}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(41,497.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $267,642$ on 2020-06-28

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $248,770$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(7.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{236,782.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(236,782.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,343$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(9.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,423.2}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 34.2)}}\) (asimptote \(27,423.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $70,051$ on 2020-06-28

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $240,310$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(6.62 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,231.5}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(233,231.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,738$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(8.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,706.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.6)}}\) (asimptote \(33,706.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,681$ on 2020-06-28

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,137$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(4.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,172.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.8)}}\) (asimptote \(89,172.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,280$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(844 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,116.6}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,116.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,857$ on 2020-06-28

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $199,476$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(5.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{188,574.8}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(188,574.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,781$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(7.94 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,800.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(28,800.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $93,921$ on 2020-06-28

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,355$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,626.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(47,626.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,124$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,005.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,005.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,045$ on 2020-06-28

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,439$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(6.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,046.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(25,046.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,735$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(367 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,678.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,678.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $340$ on 2020-06-28

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

San Marino recovered 100%
Malta recovered 93%
Estonia recovered 93%
Italy recovered 85%
Hungary recovered 57%
Belarus recovered 37%
Poland recovered 18%

San Marino⮸

Population $33,931$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $698$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(190 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{697.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(697.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(19.3 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 24.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $0$ on 2020-06-28

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $670$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(184 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{638.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(638.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-28

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25$ on 2020-06-28

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,987$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(644 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,878.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,878.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(26.8 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67.9}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 24.2)}}\) (asimptote \(67.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $100$ on 2020-06-28

Hungary⮸

Population $9,660,351$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,142$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(961 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,033.3}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,033.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $581$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(109 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{561.9}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 45.5)}}\) (asimptote \(561.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $876$ on 2020-06-28